Post by The Situation on Jan 23, 2009 16:35:49 GMT -5
Eventually...Ok that was to get you into the topic. I think now is a great time to talk about the economy.
Well the housing market isn't primed for any sort of comeback. You know, the reason for this mess. Turns out the banks are still holding a ton of inventory off of the market. So 1+ million homes have not hit the market. These "shadow" holdings are going to hold the housing market down for a while. I'm thinking, as well as the smart people I get my info from, that we're talking 10 years before prices get back to current levels. No kidding. Probably 30 years before you see 2006 prices.
The banks are fucked. There is talk of up to 2.4 trillion dollars in write-downs left to happen. I think it has to be lower, because we are really all going to die if it's not. Even if there's just a 1 trillion in write-downs left, there may only be a couple of publicly traded banks left. Citi is probably going to fail, BOA could, and still more. The good news is Goldman Sachs should survive and be dirt cheap near the bottom. GS is going to make me rich, or at least less poor.
There are going to be many more jobs lost. So if you have one right now, enjoy it.
Guys this is a pretty miserable economy. I'm thinking like Japan's Lost Decade or even worse! So I'd suggest keeping an eye on it at least.
Well the housing market isn't primed for any sort of comeback. You know, the reason for this mess. Turns out the banks are still holding a ton of inventory off of the market. So 1+ million homes have not hit the market. These "shadow" holdings are going to hold the housing market down for a while. I'm thinking, as well as the smart people I get my info from, that we're talking 10 years before prices get back to current levels. No kidding. Probably 30 years before you see 2006 prices.
The banks are fucked. There is talk of up to 2.4 trillion dollars in write-downs left to happen. I think it has to be lower, because we are really all going to die if it's not. Even if there's just a 1 trillion in write-downs left, there may only be a couple of publicly traded banks left. Citi is probably going to fail, BOA could, and still more. The good news is Goldman Sachs should survive and be dirt cheap near the bottom. GS is going to make me rich, or at least less poor.
There are going to be many more jobs lost. So if you have one right now, enjoy it.
Guys this is a pretty miserable economy. I'm thinking like Japan's Lost Decade or even worse! So I'd suggest keeping an eye on it at least.
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