|
|
Post by dkgojackets on Nov 30, 2007 22:29:16 GMT -5
The two-point conversion rate in the NFL over the past decade is about 45%.
The extra point conversion rate is about 98%.
A team is down 14 with less than five minutes to play and scores a TD. Assuming overtime is a 50/50 proposition, they should go for two.
I'll let others elaborate.
|
|
|
|
Post by detroitbasketball on Nov 30, 2007 22:34:24 GMT -5
Wait, is the team down 14 before or after the touchdown? I'm assuming before. So they go for two, if they make it they're only down six and can win with a touchdown and PAT, if they miss they can still get another TD and tie it with two on that score.
Do I have this right?
|
|
|
|
Post by I am a huge CUNT on Nov 30, 2007 22:37:51 GMT -5
say what?
|
|
|
|
Post by dkgojackets on Nov 30, 2007 22:39:59 GMT -5
Wait, is the team down 14 before or after the touchdown? I'm assuming before. So they go for two, if they make it they're only down six and can win with a touchdown and PAT, if they miss they can still get another TD and tie it with two on that score. Do I have this right? You are down 14 points and then score a touchdown, so you are now down 8 pending an extra point or 2-point attempt. |
|
Just Blaze
All-Conference
Patriots To The Super Bowl! Go Pats!
Posts: 3,212
|
Post by Just Blaze on Nov 30, 2007 22:40:42 GMT -5
If what DB says is true than no team will go for two. They'll play for OT.
Unless the team is terrible and feels like they have nothing to play for. Then they'd go for two and try to get the win.
|
|
Sportsbuck
All-Conference
I Love Gay Sex With Hot Men
Ohio State Buckeyes: 2010 National Champs
Posts: 4,932
|
Post by Sportsbuck on Nov 30, 2007 22:44:00 GMT -5
You kick the PAT after the first touchdown no doubt. If you score a 2nd, and the other team has more talent than you, you go for 2. If you are more talented, you kick the extra point and go to OT.
|
|
|
|
Post by dkgojackets on Nov 30, 2007 22:46:28 GMT -5
Use the numbers provided with relatively even matched teams that don't skew them (like the Ravens offense against the Steelers defense).
|
|
|
|
Post by dkgojackets on Nov 30, 2007 22:57:17 GMT -5
To show that this situation is not uncommon, NMSU just score a TD with 5:43 left when down 30 - 16. They kicked the XP to make it 30-23.
|
|
Just Blaze
All-Conference
Patriots To The Super Bowl! Go Pats!
Posts: 3,212
|
Post by Just Blaze on Nov 30, 2007 23:12:47 GMT -5
To show that this situation is not uncommon, NMSU just score a TD with 5:43 left when down 30 - 16. They kicked the XP to make it 30-23. they're going to play for OT then.... |
|
|
|
Post by dkgojackets on Nov 30, 2007 23:14:12 GMT -5
And statistically it was the incorrect decision.
|
|
Buzz Killington
All-Conference
Immense disappointment and let down
Now who here likes a good story about a bridge?
Posts: 4,030 
|
Post by Buzz Killington on Nov 30, 2007 23:24:59 GMT -5
Depends on how much momentum you have. If you're rolling, go for two. If it's about even, play for overtime.
|
|
|
|
Post by dkgojackets on Nov 30, 2007 23:26:25 GMT -5
Actually I would say its the opposite.
|
|
Buzz Killington
All-Conference
Immense disappointment and let down
Now who here likes a good story about a bridge?
Posts: 4,030
|
Post by Buzz Killington on Nov 30, 2007 23:44:55 GMT -5
You may be right, depends on how much momentum you have and whether it gets you over that 50% probability threshold.
It also depends on how tired your team is, and how much of an underdog you are.
|
|
|
|
Post by dkgojackets on Nov 30, 2007 23:48:07 GMT -5
You may be right, depends on how much momentum you have and whether it gets you over that 50% probability threshold. It also depends on how tired your team is, and how much of an underdog you are. That's not it at all. We are using the average rate of conversion for both and a 50/50 overtime proposition, not assuming the rate changes. Momentum would only play a role if you think scoring two late TDs to send a game to overtime gives you a better than 50% chance to win, and even then it would have to be pretty significant which I don't think it is. |
|
sep
All-American
Posts: 7,153
|
Post by sep on Dec 1, 2007 0:56:45 GMT -5
You use some Boise plays and go for 2.
|
|
|
|
Post by dkgojackets on Dec 1, 2007 1:11:22 GMT -5
no
|
|
