Cubs re-ink Dempster

[Dash]

I agree they overpaid Dempster but taking 33/35 in saves as a closer he did very well .. I also agree that he has some control problems but like someone stated with some work this offseason I think he can become one of the better closers the MLB sees for a few years maybe for a long time ... we only have a few good ones right now like Chad Cordero from Washington who had the most saves this season with 47, Bob Wickman from Cleveland, Francisco Rodríguez from the Angels, Trevor Hoffman from the padres, and Mariano Rivera from the Yankees. I think Dempster can be like them in a good year or two as long as he stays healthy

[Centaur]

Full Comparison of Closers (excluding closers still in rookie contracts.)

Player	SV/OPP	ERA	Salery(M)	Notes
Bob Wickman	45/50	2.47	2.75	Getting older, salery will go down
Trevor Hoffman	43/46	2.97	5.0	still a good closer
Mariano Rivera	43/47	1.38	10.5	still the best closer
Joe Nathan	43/48	2.70	2.1	only 2nd year as closer, expect salery to go up
Danny Baez	41/49	2.86	3.75	was 23/35 3.57ERA when he got contract
Todd Jones	40/45	2.10	1.1	first year as a closer since 2000
Jason Isringhausen	39/43	2.14	8.25	very good closer
Billy Wagner	38/41	1.51	9.0	great closer, throws hardest ball in MLB
Fransico Cordero	37/45	3.39	3.875	solid closer, high era, 8 blown saves
Eddie Guardado	36/41	2.72	4.0	good closer
B.J. Ryan	36/41	2.43	2.6	1st year as closer, contract was set before this
Dustin Hermanson	34/39	2.04	2.0	1st year as closer, contract was set before this
Ryan Dempster	33/35	1.85	2.0	Player in question, gets $3M bump for closing
Miguel Batista	31/39	4.10	2.6	transitioned from Starter to closer like Dempster
Bradon Looper	28/36	3.94	5.3	good young closer, probably closest comparison to Dempster

I guess I should put some commentary with this, I don't think Dempster is overpaid, I think you will see players like Turnbull and Lidge get similar raises, I even expect Lidge to go into the 6-8M range.

[Dash]

where the heck is Chad Cordero?? with 47 saves he should be up there?

[Centaur]

I excluded pitchers on rookie salaries, he makes all of $346,500.

[bravest]

The point is, is Dempster's salary just got more than doubled. Some of those contracts are currently injust, but does this guy deserved to get payed more than Everyday Eddie? I think not...

[Centaur]

I think so, hes a young player, only going to get better. His numbers are better than Eddie's.

I mean give him 50 oppertunities like Wickman got, and hes got what 46 saves? on that list he has the best save percentage, and a 1.85 era is one of the best also.

[Dash]

centaur said:

I excluded pitchers on rookie salaries, he makes all of $346,500.

Sorry I didn't know

[Terps]

I still think in some cases it is better to sign cheaper guys who are generally middle relievers and try and switch them over to closer. Obviously this can be very risky, but also cost effective if you do it with the proper guy.

[Centaur]

Its not easy to find that guy though, and when you do, you normally want to keep them at that postion. That is why you dont see the yankees trading off Rivera, they have thier closer, and they will keep him. Astros have Lidge now, hes staying in houston. They will offer him big money when that contract comes up. Expect the same from Cordero and the others that arn't yet to thier big league contracts.

[bravest]

Here's an idea, Cubs management: Rocky Biddle. He's been out for this year with an injury and would make for a cost-effective alternative at closer, but he'd obviously be a risk. It's worth the shot in my opinion.

[Centaur]

OK clearly not getting the point across here. You don't take a risk with closers! (unless you currently have no one in that position)

You keep Ryan Dempster, and next three years when your ahead in the 9th you don't worry about losing the game. You can't just install any pitcher to the closer role and have them pitch perfect baseball.

Rocky Biddle went 11/15 with a 6.98 ERA in his last season. I sure as hell don't want a guy with a 6.98 ERA as my closer. (lifetime ERA is 5.47)

[bravest]

I told you that it would be a risk, and obviously spending a load of money on Dempster wasn't. As I said before, the most valuable statistic in a pitcher's line is WHIP (not ERA and not S/OPP), and with Dempster's already sunk, it might be time to reevaluate where the Cubs are headed in that respect.

You keep Ryan Dempster, and next three years when your ahead in the 9th you don't worry about losing the game. You can't just install any pitcher to the closer role and have them pitch perfect baseball.

I'm a Billy Beane follower, and the number one thing that I know is to not overvalue a closer. Not only does he not play every game, he's only pitching one inning, and honestly, and major league pitcher should be able to make for an adequate closer. Hell, I'd take Rick Ankiel on my squad if he got his control in check.

[bmaster]

Bravest makes a great point about WHIP and I'm also a big sabermetric guy. Look at the A's, they've been one of the winningist teams the last few years and each year a different player has led the team in saves.

[Centaur]

Dempsters WHIP wasn't that bad, as a reliever it was a 1.25, maybe just a tad higher than the best current closers, but not so high to cause alarm. Secondly I don't think WHIP is the most important, ERA has to be the biggest factor. The spread in WHIP of Starting pitchers (top 40 pitchers in ERA) is from .95 (pedro martinez) to 1.46 (scott kazmir) all of .51, not a huge difference. While ERA goes from 1.87 (roger clemens) to 3.79 (randy johnson) a spread of 1.92 however the WHIP difference between those two, 0.12 from 1.01 to 1.13

[Gary]

I dunno, is it just me or is the only stat that matters is the 33 saves out of 35 oppurtunities? Forgot to mention that even when he blew a save, the Cubs still won. So the Cubs were 35-0 when Dempster came on to close.

You stick with what works, if it's not broken don't fix it. You all should know this.

[bravest]

WHIP factors in much more than ERA, and the spread between the best and the worst of the MLB doesn't really matter. You can say that Dempster was on par with the rest of the league all you'd like, I'll stick with WHIP.

[bmaster]

Well, I think DIPS ERA is the best pitching stat. Hits are effected by how good a team's defense is so you're not really getting what the pitcher is in total control of. DIPS just takes strikeouts, walks, and home runs and comes up with a number like ERA and that's who I tell the best pitcher is. Here are some of the best:
BJ Ryan 2.28
Brad Lidge 2.32
Joe Nathan 2.36
Mariano Rivera 2.40 (just a coincidence they keep going up by .4)
And then there's Ryan Dempster: 3.10

[Centaur]

Ok just because Dempters case needs some help in there, you have to use his stats as a reliever, not as a starter, which was sub-par. I looked up DIPS ERA to try and find the formula for it, appears there are several variations, and I chose to watch football instead of really dig into that.

[bravest]

So why post? If there are countless numbers of Cubs fans who are disgruntled over this signing, that should be proof enough that the guy isn't up there with some of the rest of the closers as the best in the league, and that this isn't going to be a beneficial transaction for the team.

[Centaur]

bravest said:

So why post? If there are countless numbers of Cubs fans who are disgruntled over this signing, that should be proof enough that the guy isn't up there with some of the rest of the closers as the best in the league, and that this isn't going to be a beneficial transaction for the team.

Because Cubs fans don't like it makes him bad?
I doubt Cub fans like the White Sox, but they are doing pretty good.

Some of us value stats, the numbers show that as a closer Dempster was one of the best in the business last year. The cubs gave him a worthy raise and let everyone know that he is thier closer, and to expect him to be around for awhile.